The Recent Trends scenario is based on the existing City and County General Plan land use designations and assumes no change in market demand for housing types. This scenario continues the existing pattern of development, in which Residential Medium (Single-Family Residential, R-1, District) is the primary demand choice for residential development.

Recent Trends will provide a sufficient mix of residential uses in all land use categories except Residential Medium Low (1 to 5 acres per dwelling unit) and Residential Low (5 to 10 acres per dwelling unit). This scenario will require auto dependency for many parts of Tuolumne County, because walkable communities, defined as a 5-minute walk (1/4 mile) between home and the core of a community, shopping, jobs, recreation, community facilities and transit, would exist only within community cores. The amount of mixed-use land uses will remain the same as today.

Although greenbelts will likely preserve communities and their individual identity, some community boundaries become blurred because of Residential Medium Low and Residential Low development occurring between communities. Transportation choices will remain the same as today as residential development continues to spread out. This scenario does not address ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Growth is located where multiple services, such as major transportation corridors, transit lines, and public water and sewer, are located. Development will continue to grow within defined communities, however development will radiate outward along a select number of arterials, major collectors, and transit corridors, where public water and sewer exist, creating linear communities containing a mix of multifamily housing, townhouses, neighborhood commercial and traditional neighborhoods. In this scenario, the incorporation of a passenger rail system is a possibility.

This scenario will result in some auto dependency for residents residing beyond transit corridors and community cores. The amount of Mixed-Use land uses will increase by placing these uses in close proximity to transit stations and community cores, thereby increasing walkability in these areas.

Some community boundaries may become blurred because of rural development occurring between communities along State Highways and transit corridors. In relation, impacts to natural resources and agricultural uses are limited since a majority of development is located within defined communities and along arterials, major corridors and transit corridors where public water and sewer exist. However, General Plan land use designations within or adjacent to community boundaries may be converted to urban land uses to maximize the benefit of available infrastructure.

This alternative provides an opportunity for more transportation choices, by locating a high population of residents within transit corridors, creating mixed-use, pedestrian-oriented centers, designed so that people can access destinations via transit and then walk to other nearby destinations. This alternative may propose densities along rail corridors necessary to make passenger rail feasible. In addition, dispersed housing can be served by park-and-ride facilities, however, destinations must be close to transit stations. Providing an adequate supply of commercial, industrial, recreational and tourism uses can be achieved by providing a very high employment density near transit corridors and stations, in order to locate as many jobs as possible near transit and to make transit a viable commute option.

Through the development of this scenario, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced through an increase in transit ridership and development would be concentrated around transit corridors and community cores.

Each community contains a well-defined, cohesive, and compact community built around an appropriately-scaled urban core and community gathering places. The size of each community is based on a locally defined urban development boundary area. The existing urban development boundaries may be expanded to allow dense growth to occur near existing community nodes. Infill, redevelopment and mixed-use are used to take advantage of existing public infrastructure and services. Residential and commercial areas become more compact within new urban development boundaries promoting mixed-use and higher density residential development to supply housing demand. With compact neighborhoods and the possibility of incorporating a passenger rail system, auto dependency and new roads are reduced and transportation options are increased.

This scenario will create and provide a mixture of residential, retail, entertainment, office and commercial uses near each other within the urban development boundaries creating active communities. By having compact communities, auto dependency is greatly reduced and walking, bicycling and transit use becomes an increasing form of transportation.

Urban development is centralized within the urban development boundaries with rural development radiating outward to the defined community boundaries. Surrounding rural development will serve as buffers between communities and help meet the functional needs of the natural environment and nearby agriculture production. Rural development may be primarily located on the fringe of defined communities, but clustered or grouped together to make the best use of infrastructure and avoid disruption to agricultural lands and environmentally sensitive areas.

Transportation investments, such as passenger rail, are used to link communities and to support a wide range of mobility choices within individual communities. With urban development limited within urban development boundaries, more than one downtown, community center or pedestrian-oriented center is possible in each community, providing a 5-minute walk (1/4 mile) between home and the core of a community, jobs, recreation, community facilities and transit. By providing compact neighborhoods, efficient transit routes and the 5-minute walk criteria, trips become shorter and auto-dependency is greatly reduced, in turn reducing Tuolumne County's greenhouse gas footprint.

Local government policies and programs would work in concert to encourage more complete and economically self-sufficient communities, where residents can live, work, and shop in the same community.